Backcasting

Backcasting is a futures-and-planning method where you start by describing a desirable future in concrete terms, then work backwards to identify the steps, decisions, policies, and milestones needed to get from “now” to that future - wikipedia

Backcasting begins by imagining a desirable future, then working backwards to identify the steps needed to get there. It shifts the perspective from: > What will happen?

to: > What could we create?

YOUTUBE DeDm-HTFuiY Backcasting from Success - youtube

In contrast to Forecasting, which extends from the present, backcasting is goal-driven. It is often used in sustainability planning and innovation strategies, where the future vision shapes the present agenda.

Backcasting encourages participants to ask: > What must change today to make this vision possible tomorrow?

# Backcasting vs Scriptwriting

Backcasting is very close to a scriptwriting move called “reverse plotting”: decide how the story ends, then design the turning points that must have happened earlier, and keep working back until you reach the opening scene - wikipedia

The difference is that scriptwriting is usually about one authored narrative arc, while backcasting is usually about a shared plan (often with multiple pathways, risks, and trade-offs) that a group can commit to and revisit.

# See

- Backcasting the Future - Backcasting Workshop and Backcasting as Theatre - Free Cities Podcast: 099 - Dr. David Bovill: Future States, Regenerative Cities & Open Source Law, 11. Okt. 2024 - podcast - Future-Oriented Planning - Bring Back from the Future - Backcasting - erc.undp.org and assets ]